Stop Calling This A Buyer’s Market. We’re Not There Yet

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As inventory has risen this spring and summer, we’ve seen something we haven’t seen in years: listings languishing on the market and talk of an emerging buyer’s market in many regions. However, as we know, all real estate is local, and the same trends don’t apply to every real estate market.

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Recently, over some incredible breakfast burritos, I sat down with my friend Jordan Levine, senior vice president and chief economist at the California Association of Realtors. I asked him directly: “Are we in a buyer’s market?” I brought up what I keep seeing on social media — agents proclaiming we’ve entered one.

The trends we discussed may not apply to the entire U.S., but they likely reflect what’s happening in many markets, especially here in California. I’m based along the coast of Ventura County, nestled between Malibu and Santa Barbara. As market conditions shift across the state, it’s tempting to throw around the label “buyer’s market.” Inventory is rising. Days on market are stretching. Bidding wars are cooling off.

But let’s be clear: In most places, this is not a buyer’s market, at least not in any meaningful or historical sense.

According to Levine, we’ve simply moved from an extremely unfavorable market for buyers to a normally unfavorable one.

“To me, a buyer’s market means you can ask for the moon and reasonably expect to get it,” Levine told me. “That’s not what we’re seeing right now.”

Yes, conditions have improved for buyers relative to the past few years. But that bar is low. Inventory is back to 2019 levels, and sales volume is still hovering near 15-year lows. What may feel like a more “balanced” market is, in reality, one where demand has collapsed under the weight of affordability and high mortgage rates. 

The minute interest rates fall — or economic sentiment recovers — buyers will flood back, and inventory will once again prove inadequate.

Not quite a buyer’s market

California’s housing market has undeniably cooled since its post-pandemic frenzy. Higher interest rates, elevated uncertainty and more active listings have brought down the fever pitch that once defined the state’s competitive landscape. But cooler doesn’t mean cold.

“There’s more inventory, but not enough inventory,” Levine said. “And sellers are still in a strong position.”

The state’s unsold inventory index now sits at about 3.8 months — technically higher than recent years, but still well below the five to six months typically associated with a balanced market. And that’s taking into account historically depressed demand. Once rates normalize, that 3.8 months will be gone in a blink.

Managing buyer expectations

The real issue isn’t just market conditions — it’s perception. Buyers hear “more inventory” and “price reductions” and assume they’ve regained the upper hand. Agents know better.

“We have a client expectation problem,” Levine warned. “When people hear ‘buyer’s market,’ they think they’ll land big discounts and face no competition. But that’s not what’s happening.”

Sellers aren’t panicking. Most California homeowners have locked in 3 percent mortgages. They’ve built up substantial equity. They’re employed. And they’re not likely to slash their asking price just because a buyer makes a lowball offer. More often, they’ll simply take the home off the market and wait.

“There’s no real distress out there,” Levine said. “This isn’t 2008.”

What’s really changed?

The signs of a softer market are real, but they’re relative:

  • Homes are sitting longer
  • Fewer properties are closing above list price
  • Price reductions are up
  • Multiple-offer scenarios are less common
  • The sense of “act now or miss out” has cooled

That all amounts to a less frenzied, more navigable market. And yes, that can translate to opportunity. But it’s still not a market where buyers hold all the cards.

“It’s easier than it was. But that’s not the same as easy,” Levine said. “It may still take multiple offers to close on a home. You may still not feel like you got a deal.”

So what is this market?

This is not a buyer’s market. It’s a recalibrated one. A pause, not a pivot. While the market has pulled back from the extremes of 2021–2022, it’s still structurally imbalanced in favor of sellers.

Prices have plateaued in many areas, but there’s no capitulation. And the economic backdrop just doesn’t support a true shift in leverage. Unemployment is low. Foreclosures are rare. And the vast majority of sellers are financially strong. They can, and will, wait.

“Unless something truly bad happens to the economy,” Levine said, “we just don’t get true buyer’s markets in California.”

The bottom line for agents

While your mileage may vary, when it comes to most markets, agents should stop calling this a buyer’s market. It’s misleading, and it sets buyers up for disappointment.

Yes, there are more opportunities now than in recent years. But this is still a tough market. Affordability is stretched. Inventory is thin. And competition hasn’t disappeared; it’s just less visible.

As real estate professionals, our job is not to oversimplify the narrative, but to bring clarity to it. Help clients understand the nuance: They have more time, more options and slightly more leverage, but they are not in control.

This isn’t 2008. It’s not even 2011. It’s 2025. And California is still California.

Troy Palmquist is the founder and principal at HomeCode Advisors. Connect with him on LinkedIn.

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